Over the past few years, the prevailing trend in coffee production has been that of decline. Not just in terms of overall output, which has been hampered by climate change, but in the number of producers. Driven by a volatile marketplace, the fear has historically been that coffee farmers will simply switch to more stable and profitable crops.
But a new report in Reuters finds that the opposite might be the case currently, and it could spell relief for the global coffee supply in the coming years.
Per the International Coffee Organization, record-high coffee prices on the coffee futures market is spurring on new coffee farms, which could help bolster the global supply that has had trouble keeping up with demand.
The current supply is running on a deficit and has been for a few years, and per ICO Executive Director Vanusia Nogueira, 2026 may be the first year to break the streak, “depending on the weather in the main producing countries, such as Brazil, Colombia, and Vietnam.” And these new farms may provide relief, though not in the short term. They are expected to start producing in three years. But for this to occur, the favorable market conditions that brought about the new farms need to hold in order for the farmers to maintain the crops.
Of course, once these new farms do start producing and the stockpile normalizes, the scarcity-driven price will then dip back down. But it is nonetheless a positive indication that sentiments on coffee farming are trending toward the positive, if only to remove one of the many existential threats to coffee production.
Zac Cadwalader is the managing editor at Sprudge Media Network and a staff writer based in Dallas. Read more Zac Cadwalader on Sprudge.
