As of writing this, the price of coffee futures on the commodities market sits at $2.90 per pound, a little over $1.20 down from the highpoint at the end of 2025. While the drop seems precipitous, the elevated price was due largely to the global tariffs enacted by the United States government in April, and so the drop is more of a normalizing after the tariffs were removed. Nonetheless, experts are concerned that the price of coffee will plummet even further and could even bottom out at or below the $2.00 mark.
As reported by Reuters, these concerns were expressed recently at the 2026 National Coffee Association Convention that took place over the weekend in Tampa, Florida. At it, many experts drew comparisons to another commodity, cocoa. In 2024, like coffee did last year, cocoa saw record prices on the market, only to then lose 70% once it was all said and done. One strategist at DeCarley Trading stated that, “I would be shocked if it did not happen,” adding, “I do think coffee is the new cocoa.” The strategist, Carley Garner, posited that prices will drop to $2 by the end of the year.
An analyst at Avere Commodities thinks it could go even lower. Digby Beatson-Hird states that he expects the price to dip to $1.80.
The predictions are bolstered somewhat by a recent NCA survey of American coffee consumers that found coffee prices were affecting purchasing decisions. 61% of those surveyed took step to decrease their coffee spending through fewer visits to cafes, switching to less expensive brands, and making more coffee at home. Despite the budged consciousness, though, the survey found that coffee consumption levels remained unchanged.
An expected decrease is also due in part to Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, who is expected to have a bumper crop in the upcoming harvest. The additional supply help replenish storehouses while also increasing the supply, thus depressing the price.
So it may be another year of unpredictable pricing. But the dip to $2.00, or lower, is significant. It falls well below $2.50, the profitability threshold as determined by the Specialty Coffee Association, a number that is itself nearly a decade old and thus not likely to be representative of the current break-even point.
Zac Cadwalader is the managing editor at Sprudge Media Network and a staff writer based in Dallas. Read more Zac Cadwalader on Sprudge.
